Modeling Risk: Applying Monte Carlo Simulation, Real Options Analysis, Forecasting, and Optimization Techniques (Wiley Finance)

Modeling Risk, the completely revised and updated edition of Applied Risk Analysis, includes many new case studies in modeling risk and uncertainty, and a new risk analysis CD-ROM prepared by Dr. Johnathan Mun. The new CD-ROM includes the author's Risk Simulator and Real Options Super Lattice Solver software, as well as many useful spreadsheet models. "Johnathan Mun has previously published a number of very popular books dealing with different aspects of risk analysis-associated techniques and tools. This last publication puts all the pieces together. The book is really unavoidable for any professional who wants to address risk evaluation following a logical, concrete, and conclusive approach." -Jean Louis Vaysse, Deputy Vice President, Marketing, Airbus (France) "Dr. Mun breaks through the hyperbole and presents a clear, step-by-step approach revealing to readers how quantitative methods and tools can truly make a difference. In short, he teaches you what is relevant and is a 'must know.' I highly recommend this book, especially if you want to effectively incorporate the latest technologies into your decision-making process for your real-world business." -Dr. Paul W. Finnegan, MD, MBA, Vice President, Commercial Operations and Development, Alexion Pharmaceuticals, Inc. "A must-read for product portfolio managers . . . it captures the risk exposure of strategic investments, and provides management with estimates of potential outcomes and options for risk mitigation." -Rafael E. Gutierrez, Executive Director of Strategic Marketing and Planning, Seagate Technology, Inc. "Once again, Dr. Mun has created a 'must-have, must-read' book for anyone interested in the practical application of risk analysis. Other books speak in academic generalities, or focus on one area of risk application. [This book] gets to the heart of the matter with applications for every area of risk analysis. You have a real option to buy almost any book-you should exercise your option and get this one!" -Glenn Kautt, MBA, CFP, EA, President and Chairman, The Monitor Group, Inc. "Johnathan Mun's book is a sparkling jewel in my finance library. Mun demonstrates a deep understanding of the underlying mathematical theory in his ability to reduce complex concepts to lucid explanations and applications. For this reason, he's my favorite writer in this field." -Janet Tavakoli, President, Tavakoli Structured Finance, Inc. and author of Collateralized Debt Obligations and Structured Finance "Every year the market of managerial books is flooded again and again. This book is different. It puts a valuable tool into the hands of corporate managers who are willing to stand up against uncertainties and risks and are determined to deliver value to shareholder and society, even in rough times. It is a book for the new generation of managers, for whom Corporate America is waiting." -Dr. Markus Götz Junginger, Managing Partner, IBCOL Consulting AG (Switzerland)