The Way to Competitiveness of PV - An Experience Curve and Break-even Analysis

Experience curves describe the decline of costs of a produced unit with increased cumulative production. This concept is used to research past price decreases in photovoltaics (PV) and to evaluate the potential economic impact of different PV growth scenarios. For the competitiveness of PV the price of a kWh is crucial, not only the PV system price. The thesis deals with the question concerning how the PV experience curves must be constructed to include all price decreases of a kWh PV.In the break-even analysis it is investigated which investments are necessary to reach the competitiveness of PV for electricity power production and which profits will occur through the use of PV in the electricity mix. These results are enhanced with a scenario for a German market which is particularly export orientated and a scenario for the fast introduction of PV in global niche-markets.